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Abstract Southwest North America is projected by models to aridify, defined as declining summer soil moisture, under the influence of rising greenhouse gases. Here, we investigate the driving mechanisms of aridification that connect the oceans, atmosphere, and land surface across seasons. The analysis is based on atmosphere model simulations forced by imposed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). For the historical period, these are the observed ones, and the model is run to 2041 using SSTs that account for realistic and plausible evolutions of Pacific Ocean and Atlantic Ocean interannual to decadal variability imposed on estimates of radiatively forced SST change. The results emphasize the importance of changes in precipitation throughout the year for declines in summer soil moisture. In the worst-case scenario, a cool tropical Pacific and warm North Atlantic lead to reduced cool season precipitation and soil moisture. Drier soils then persist into summer such that evapotranspiration reduces and soil moisture partially recovers. In the best-case scenario, the opposite states of the oceans lead to increased cool season precipitation but higher evapotranspiration prevents this from increasing summer soil moisture. Across the scenarios, atmospheric humidity is primarily controlled by soil moisture: drier soils lead to reduced evapotranspiration, lower air humidity, and higher vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Radiatively forced change reduces fall precipitation via anomalous transient eddy moisture flux divergence. Fall drying causes soils to enter winter dry such that, even in the best-case scenario of cool season precipitation increase, soil moisture remains dry. Radiative forcing reduces summer precipitation aided by reduced evapotranspiration from drier soils. Significance StatementSouthwest North America has long been projected to undergo aridification under rising greenhouse gases. In this model-based paper, we examine how coupling across seasons between the atmosphere and land system moves the region toward reduced summer soil moisture. The results show the dominant control on summer soil moisture by precipitation throughout the year. It also shows that even in best-case scenarios when changes in decadal modes of ocean variability lead to increases in cool season precipitation, rising spring and summer evapotranspiration means this does not translate into increased summer soil moisture. The work places projections of regional aridification on a firmer basis of understanding of the ocean driving of the atmosphere and its coupling to the land system. 

Abstract The US Southwest is in a drought crisis that has been developing over the past two decades, contributing to marked increases in burned forest areas and unprecedented efforts to reduce water consumption. Climate change has contributed to this ongoing decadal drought via warming that has increased evaporative demand and reduced snowpack and streamflows. However, on the supply side, precipitation has been low during the 21st century. Here, using simulations with an atmosphere model forced by imposed sea surface temperatures, we show that the 21st century shift to cooler tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures forced a decline in cool season precipitation that in turn drove a decline in spring to summer soil moisture in the southwest. We then project the near-term future out to 2040, accounting for plausible and realistic natural decadal variability of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and radiatively-forced change. The future evolution of decadal variability in the Pacific and Atlantic will strongly influence how wet or dry the southwest is in coming decades as a result of the influence on cool season precipitation. The worst-case scenario involves a continued cold state of the tropical Pacific and the development of a warm state of the Atlantic while the best case scenario would be a transition to a warm state of the tropical Pacific and the development of a cold state of the Atlantic. Radiatively-forced cool season precipitation reduction is strongest if future forced SST change continues the observed pattern of no warming in the equatorial Pacific cold tongue. Although this is a weaker influence on summer soil moisture than natural decadal variability, no combination of natural decadal variability and forced change ensures a return to winter precipitation or summer soil moisture levels as high as those in the final two decades of the 20th century. 

Abstract By summer 2021 moderate to exceptional drought impacted 28% of North America, focused west of the Mississippi, with serious impacts on fire, water resources, and agriculture. Here, using reanalyses and SST-forced climate models, we examine the onset and development of this southwestern drought from its inception in summer 2020 through winter and spring 2020/21. The drought severity in summer 2021 resulted from four consecutive prior seasons in which precipitation in the southwest United States was the lowest on record or, at least, extremely dry. The dry conditions in summer 2020 arose from internal atmospheric variability but are beyond the range of what the studied atmosphere models simulate for that season. From winter 2020 through spring 2021 the worsening drought conditions were guided by the development of a La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean aided drought in the southern part of the region by driving the cool season to be drier during the last two decades. There is also evidence that the southern part of the region in spring is drying due to human-driven climate change. In sum the drought onset was driven by a combination of internal atmospheric variability and interannual climate variability and aided by natural decadal variability and human-driven climate change. 

Abstract. Surface mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) hasaccelerated over the past decades, mainly due to enhanced surface meltingand liquid water runoff in response to atmospheric warming. A large portionof runoff from the GrIS originates from exposure of the darker bare ice inthe ablation zone when the overlying snow melts, where surface albedo playsa critical role in modulating the energy available for melting. In thisregard, it is imperative to understand the processes governing albedovariability to accurately project future mass loss from the GrIS. Bare-icealbedo is spatially and temporally variable and contingent on non-linearfeedbacks and the presence of light-absorbing constituents. An assessment ofmodels aiming at simulating albedo variability and associated impacts onmeltwater production is crucial for improving our understanding of theprocesses governing these feedbacks and, in turn, surface mass loss fromGreenland. Here, we report the results of a comparison of the bare-iceextent and albedo simulated by the regional climate model ModèleAtmosphérique Régional (MAR) with satellite imagery from theModerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for the GrIS below70∘ N. Our findings suggest that MAR overestimates bare-ice albedoby 22.8 % on average in this area during the 2000–2021 period with respectto the estimates obtained from MODIS. Using an energy balance model toparameterize meltwater production, we find this bare-ice albedo bias canlead to an underestimation of total meltwater production from the bare-icezone below 70∘ N of 42.8 % during the summers of 2000–2021. 

Abstract We investigate wintertime extreme sea ice loss events on synoptic to subseasonal time scales over the Barents–Kara Sea, where the largest sea ice variability is located. Consistent with previous studies, extreme sea ice loss events are associated with moisture intrusions over the Barents–Kara Sea, which are driven by the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In addition to the role of downward longwave radiation associated with moisture intrusions, which is emphasized by previous studies, our analysis shows that strong turbulent heat fluxes are associated with extreme sea ice melting events, with both turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes contributing, although turbulent sensible heat fluxes dominate. Our analysis also shows that these events are connected to tropical convective anomalies. A dipole pattern of convective anomalies with enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent and suppressed convection over the central to eastern Pacific is consistently detected about 6–10 days prior to extreme sea ice loss events. This pattern is associated with either the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) or El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Composites show that extreme sea ice loss events are connected to tropical convection via Rossby wave propagation in the midlatitudes. However, tropical convective anomalies alone are not sufficient to trigger extreme sea ice loss events, suggesting that extratropical variability likely modulates the connection between tropical convection and extreme sea ice loss events. 

Abstract Rapid retreat of the Larsen A and B ice shelves has provided important clues about the ice shelf destabilization processes. The Larsen C Ice Shelf, the largest remaining ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula, may also be vulnerable to future collapse in a warming climate. Here, we utilize multisource satellite images collected over 1963–2020 to derive multidecadal time series of ice front, flow velocities, and critical rift features over Larsen C, with the aim of understanding the controls on its retreat. We complement these observations with modeling experiments using the Ice‐sheet and Sea‐level System Model to examine how front geometry conditions and mechanical weakening due to rifts affect ice shelf dynamics. Over the past six decades, Larsen C lost over 20% of its area, dominated by rift‐induced tabular iceberg calving. The Bawden Ice Rise and Gipps Ice Rise are critical areas for rift formation, through their impact on the longitudinal deviatoric stress field. Mechanical weakening around Gipps Ice Rise is found to be an important control on localized flow acceleration and the propagation of two rifts that caused a major calving event in 2017. Capturing the time‐varying effects of rifts on ice rigidity in ice shelf models is essential for making realistic predictions of ice shelf flow dynamics and instability. In the context of the Larsen A and Larsen B collapses, we infer a chronology of destabilization processes for embayment‐confined ice shelves, which provides a useful framework for understanding the historical and future destabilization of Antarctic ice shelves. 

Abstract. Projection of the contribution of ice sheets to sea level change as part ofthe Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) takes the formof simulations from coupled ice sheet–climate models and stand-alone icesheet models, overseen by the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project forCMIP6 (ISMIP6). This paper describes the experimental setup forprocess-based sea level change projections to be performed with stand-aloneGreenland and Antarctic ice sheet models in the context of ISMIP6. TheISMIP6 protocol relies on a suite of polar atmospheric and oceanicCMIP-based forcing for ice sheet models, in order to explore the uncertaintyin projected sea level change due to future emissions scenarios, CMIPmodels, ice sheet models, and parameterizations for ice–ocean interactions.We describe here the approach taken for defining the suite of ISMIP6stand-alone ice sheet simulations, document the experimental framework andimplementation, and present an overview of the ISMIP6 forcing to beused by participating ice sheet modeling groups.